Political Radar


April 8th, 2014

State Senate President Donna Mercado Kim's campaign released internal polling results on Tuesday that show Kim with a significant lead over her rivals in the Democratic primary for Congress.

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted the telephone poll from March 24 to March 27 among 404 likely primary voters. The margin of error was 5 percentage points.

Here is the horse race:

*Senate President Donna Mercado Kim: 35%
*Rep. K. Mark Takai: 11%
*Honolulu City Councilman Stanley Chang: 10%
*Honolulu City Councilman Ikaika Anderson: 9%
*Sen. Will Espero: 4%
*Honolulu City Councilman Joey Manahan: 2%
*Undecided: 29%

The Hawaii Poll in February found Kim with a lead in the primary, but the survey had Takai closer than Kim's internal poll shows the representative.

Former congressman Charles Djou is the Republican contender in urban Honolulu's 1st Congressional District, which is being vacated by U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who is challenging U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

9 Responses to “Up”

  1. Guido Sarducci:

    CD1 Poll: Good News for Charles Djou


  2. Gerald de Heer:

    Press releases from candidates about internal polls they conducted have to be taken with a grain of salt. However checking the the CD1 Poll (link above) combined with the reported internal poll results; patterns are emerging: 1. Kim is the clear front runner. 2. A Kim / D'Jou race is a horse race, my guess is that Kim wins a fairly close race. 3. D'Jou is a strong candidate with a party problem. 4. Manahan and Espero need to make hard choices about their campaigns i.e. step up or get out. 5. Kim's primary challenger will be Takai/Anderson/Chang...for now the race is for second. Any break by any one of them and it becomes a horse race in the Democrat Primary. Now is a good time for the second tier candidates to run television commercials; try to distance from the other two before the May State Democratic Convention. This is the hard reality for Kim: 65% of potential voters have decided one of two things (1) They are voting against her (2) They know her but need to be convinced. The best strategy for Kim is to work a quiet, grass-roots effort. Focus on the 29% undecided and bring them around. Combine social media tactics with good, old-fashioned meet/greets. Bottom line, unless someone breaks from the pack and challenges Kim, the primary is hers to lose. If Kim pursues a solid ground game, the challenger will have to get the other candidates to withdraw and endorse to have any chance of winning. Good news for Kim.

  3. sue:

    Kim's poll is a PUSH poll, "an interactive marketing technique... to influence or alter the view of voters under the guise of conducting a poll." Kim's campaign is well aware that KATHRYN XIAN is the most knowledgeable and progressive candidate and would be FORMIDABLE if she had more media coverage and name recognition. Kim's campaign worker who answered the phone at Kim HQ admitted to me that XIAN STOOD OUT at the Kokua Council candidates forum held in February. Kim was conveniently out of town on that date. I searched Kim's campaign website, trying to find her stand on issues for comparison -- I could not. That's why I phoned the HQ. I asked if they had seen the Kokua Council video. The campaign woker said they had, but they didn't think the candidates answered the questions. I said, "But did you notice that there was ONE who did?" The worker said "yes...Kathryn Xian."

  4. sue:

    What is Donna Kim's proudest achievement? On her campaign website home page she says: "While it has been a source of great pride and satisfaction to represent my constituents, I am most proud to be a mother." If this proud mother wins Dem. primary, Charles Djou will have a much easier time in the general.

  5. Tiki808:

    Any say in making any changes? For some uninformed spectator, campaign funds are the only thing they read. While others, no changes are happening. What's the deal with them? unheard of or just unqualified.

  6. Especially Incognito:

    Sy daisy...

  7. Manoa Kahuna:

    Gerald de Heer: Good Analysis.

    "This is the hard reality for Kim: 65% of potential voters have decided one of two things (1) They are voting against her (2) They know her but need to be convinced."

    You said it all.

  8. Hawaiino:

    GdH and MK
    "...hard reality for Kim: 65% of potential voters have decided one of two things (1) They are voting against her..."

    Not so fast on the assumption regarding "65%" and voters decision re: Kim.
    Drop the field to any ONE opponent and your assumption will probably (say 99% likely) not hold up.

    As far as Djou's competitive chances based on early fundraising. This is not early. Early was last year.

  9. Especially Incognito:

    1% thinks it knows...

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