Bump

May 12th, 2014
By

A new private poll shows U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz with a lead over U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

The poll was taken by Public Policy Polling for Democracy for America among 606 likely primary voters from May 9 to May 11. The margin of error was 4 percentage points. Democracy for America has endorsed Schatz.

The horserace:

Schatz: 49%

Hanabusa: 34%

Undecided: 17%

A Hawaii Poll taken in February showed Hanabusa with a slight edge. Other polls have had the race tied.

19 Responses to “Bump”

  1. innocent observer:

    I was called for that poll, it was a very biased poll, the questions were all slanted towards shatz; hence, the results are not reliable. I told the questioner that what kind of poll was it when every question was about how good shatz was. told them I was voting for hanabusa.


  2. OldPro:

    Sorry, you may not like the results and the poll may or may not be precisely accurate, but NO ONE spends the kind of money it takes to survey 600 people and then phrases the questions to distort the results.


  3. kamaaina808:

    Wait a minute. The guys that did the poll endorsed Shatz, made up the poll questions and said he was in the lead? Hahaha.


  4. Ella:

    Well said, Innocent and Kamaaina! It is what Schatz has to do to show a lead on Hanabusa.


  5. Manoa_Fisherman:

    Extremely hard to believe. Tainted push polling by another mainland group that is trying to steal the election in Hawaii. They must be in Colorado enjoying the legal pot too much!


  6. Chicken Grease:

    Well, "legal pot"-isms are more lib'/Democrat-leaning, so, we should wonder if HanabU(LL)SA's pollsters might be smoking more, Rocky Mountain state or otherwise.

    Watch for the re-hash of a Hanabusa talking to kupuna, elderly Filipino war vets, and other assorteds in her own TV ads (forthcoming? What? She no' mo' mahney fo' commercial at d'is time?).

    Actually figger that even with Schatz's ill-timed decidedly "hate on 2nd Amendment" ads alone, HanabUS[he]A get problems in this duel. Schatz "got the upper hand" [that one goes out to you Se7en fans].

    Just plain good to see Gen X beginning to get the upper hand nowadays. Baby Boomers, take thou 2-3 pensions, cash out thy stock, use that 401K for kindle, don't forget that "at least six figures" in your bank account, enjoy and get thee, well, outta the way already. I mean, really.


  7. Sayer:

    Yeah kinda like when Mufi's pollsters had him trouncing Tulsi. LO L!!


  8. Especially Incognito:

    Sound like the right wings flying a circle...


  9. The Voice:

    Sayer: It was Star-Advertiser's poll that had Mufi trouncing Tulsi all the way until two weeks before the last primary election. Agree or disagree with this poll, my own observation is that Hanabusa's campaign just hasn't stepped up to the plate - or people just don't like her. I understand her fundraising has been less than stellar, so she has to wait on running ads while Schatz has been all over TV - most people (except for a regular poster on this board) love his ads tying his family to his policy positions. I am very surprised, however, that while Hanabusa touted a far superior ground game (i.e., grassroots), her signs have been slow to go up, her canvassing consists of hanging flyers on people's fences (that everyone on my street has thrown away), no sign-waving efforts, and she has not been visible at community events. I guess we should all expect a dirty smear from the Hanabusa campaign characteristic of the "machine" behind her.


  10. Kolea:

    Public Policy Polling has a pretty good accuracy rating among national polling firms. Much higher than the better known firms like Gallup and Mason-Dixon, for example. Whether this poll is very accurate, given the reluctance of AJA voters to share their views, is a question. But the margin they have for Schatz is so large that it is probably large enough to cover the problem.

    But these numbers, even if approximately accurate, show a lot of undecided voters. And, it has to be remembered, the actual campaign has barely begun, so those numbers are subject to change. the Old Guard Democrats talked David Ige into running for Governor as tactical move to tie up Governor Abercrombie so he could not give aid and comfort to Senator Schatz' campaign. The top priority for the Old Guard was to elect Hanabusa as Senator in the hope she might still be able to deliver the pork, and to the right people, which they had become dependent upon during Inouye's years.

    It now looks like they may have more success with their secondary campaign, as support for Ige or, rather, frustrations with Abercrombie, have caused Ige's chances to rise. But electing Hanabusa may be the more difficult task than defeating Abercrombie.

    Ideally, we will have more polls, soon, of the Senate race by the same pollsters. That way, even if the polls have methodological problems, they can serve as a kind of "tracking poll" so we can get a sense of how public opinion is trending.

    Meanwhile, in the First CD Democratic primary, Donna Kim appears to be holding onto a lead, but the rest of the field is uncertain. A poll in February showed Takai in second place, with Chang a bit further behind. Have those numbers changed in the past couple of months? Has the more liberal Chang gained any ground over the more centrist Takai? At some point, those who want to block a victory by the conservative Donna Kim will have to assess the relative chances of the various alternatives and settle upon one champion to oppose Kim.

    Newer polling data in that race would be real helpful in helping defining which options make the most sense.


  11. ED MASAKI:

    I SURE WOULD LIKE TO HAVE HANABUSA COME TO OUR GUN CLUB MEETING AND INTRODUCE
    HER TO THE SENATE AS DAN INOUYE WANTED. I WOULD BACK HER UP ANY TIME OVER
    SCHATZ WHO IS DEFFINATE ANTIGUN. THIS PERSON IS JUST LIKE OBAMA WHO WANTS GUN
    CONTROL. DO NOT TRUST THESE 2 IDIOTS. ED M.


  12. ED MASAKI:

    IF ALL GUN RIGHTS PEOPLE VOTE AND PULL FOR HER SHE CAN WIN EASILY. I'LL EVEN TAKE
    HER TO KOKOHEAD FIRING RANGE AND INTRODUCE HER TO ALL THE SHOOTERS. THERE ARE
    STILL SOME SHOOTERS WHO THINK SCHATZ IS GOOD FOR HAWAII. ED M.


  13. kamaaina808:

    ED... your caps lock is stuck or what? You don't need to shout.


  14. kamaaina808:

    But I have a feeling you're a plant, not an Ed.


  15. Chicken Grease:

    Caps on might be OK.

    Just make sure the safety's ON when it should on.

    And, uh [come on, now, you can almost get this one. Say it 'long wid' me] . . . knowing is half the battle.

    Yo', uh, Joe.


  16. Nala007:

    My husband owns many guns and is a member of a gun club. We support Schatz.


  17. Guido Sarducci:

    The gang that couldn't shoot straight.


  18. Especially Incognito:

    Gun owners have the Freedom to Bear arms
    but need the freedom to bear bullets....
    Not written....


  19. Especially Incognito:

    Maybe the blind type in CAPS so the other blind
    mice can follow.


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