Political Radar


June 2nd, 2014

William Kaneko, Gov. Neil Abercrombie's campaign manager, sent an email to supporters on Monday about the results of a private poll that showed the governor ahead of state Sen. David Ige, his primary challenger.

The email, titled "We've Pulled Ahead," is interesting in that implies that the governor was at some point behind Ige.

A Hawaii Poll taken in February had Abercrombie up over Ige by single digits, which was striking given that many voters had not heard of Ige. Private polls circulating among political insiders more recently have suggested that Ige is competitive.

Kaneko said SMS Research, which polled for the Abercrombie campaign, had the governor up over Ige 42 percent to 28 percent during the spring.

The poll was taken between March 24 and April 25 by phone among 1,402 registered voters statewide. The margin of error was 2.61 percentage points.

14 Responses to “Pulled”

  1. hossana:

    Poll or no poll, IM VOTING FOR IGE!!!!!

  2. kamaaina808:

    What ^ said.

  3. Manoa_Fisherman:

    The main problem is that Abercrombie is still in the 40s in all the polls taken in the last year. If that is his solid base of support, he may be concerned since this poll still shows a whopping 30+% as undecided voters. Considering the ease by which Abercrombie defeated Hannemann in 2010 (59% to 38%), this internal poll does not bode well for him since an incumbent would not be below 50% in most cases when running for reelection. Add to the mix an expected GOP crossover vote for Ige, then the race appears to be a tossup at this point.

  4. Ella:

    This poll could also be a push poll as it is so out of line from the polls expected to be released shortly. Let us see the questions asked please, Bill Kaneko.

    The poll does not reflect what all of us are seeing, a dramatic shift for David Ige. That 30% undecided is likely to hold a lot of AJA voters who are planning to vote for David Ige, but are very private about their votes. Gov. Ariyoshi's poll numbers showed large undecided numbers all the way to election day, but in the end, those undecideds were all his.

  5. Manoa_Fisherman:

    To Ellla:

    The company that Abercrombie used to do the poll is SMS Research as it was disclosed in the press release yesterday. SMS has been doing polling for over 40 years and is the best in the state. Every major candidate wants SMS because they are the best because they are accurate.

    SMS does not do "push polls" like some advocacy groups, they are very professional and pull no punches with their clients. The numbers given are solid and reliable, however the 30% "undecided" and possible GOP crossover vote creates a very distinct problem for Abercrombie. As you said, the chances of those "undecided" going over to Ige is possibly a good bet at this point.

  6. Andy Parx:

    I took that SMS poll and it was an unabashed push poll. SMS is not longer a "respected" polling enterprise as this is the second push poll I've taken from them.

  7. Kolea:

    Andy, I disagree SMS is no longer a respected polling firm. The are good, but it is the client who has the final say on what kind of poll is conducted. I am skeptical of any poll conducted and selectively released by a campaign. As you suggest, we need to know the questions and other information before we can take seriously the claims.

    It strikes me as very odd the Abercrombie campaign finished this poll in late April but sat on the results until now, over a month later? These numbers are not in synch with the other numbers I am hearing. Kaneko's claim this poll is more "extensive" and "in-depth" than other polls doesn't carry any weight with me. Nothing "extensive" or "in-depth" has been released as evidence of this claim.

    It is my impression Ige is either tied or slightly ahead of Abercrombie at this point. I expect we will have another Civil Beat poll out soon and I doubt it will show the same results.

  8. Especially Incognito:

    Polls are unscientific and just assumptions and approximations.

  9. Gerald de Heer:

    SMS does good, if not outstanding work. Clearly the race is shifting and will for awhile. For an incumbent who can outspend a challenger ten to one or more, these numbers show more problems than promise. 58 percent of the probable electorate is either not sold or voting the other way. On the other hand 42 percent favorable is nothing to sneeze at. What Kaneko did not reveal (and if he used SMS, he knows this) is the strength of support and who is shifting. Where are the undecideds? How many of them voted for Abercrombie in the last election? Who are their second choices? How high are the negatives? How many of the 58 percent would consider voting for someone else? Campaigns are supposed to spin numbers, so Kaneko is doing what he has to do. My hunch is he is more nervous than confident.

  10. Manoa_Fisherman:

    To Andy:

    I have not take any polls lately and find that your statement that you took a SMS poll rather odd, because I don't remember SMS identifying themselves as the company taking the poll in past races. If anything, SMS tried to remain anonymous as I remembered. Also, I remember their polling to be more comprehensive in getting data of the voter and gathering information. That would not be seen as a "push" poll, but may be SMS has changed.

    To Kolea:

    I must have missed the information that the poll was conducted in April, but it does take some time to compile and analysis data collected, especially in a comprehensive poll. However, that is not to say that the Abercrombie campaign has not been taking heat from its supporters and opponents on the numerous other polls that have been taken and disclosed confidentially to political insiders and the press showing Ige in a much better position. To offset such criticism and rumors, the Abercrombie campaign may have had its hand forced to disclose the poll results in order to stem any stampede/tsunami that may be building for Ige.

  11. Guy:

    SMS does great work. Those bashing the polling firm apparently think nothing of throwing mud regardless of whose reputation they are so flippantly disparaging. Sloppy, meaningless, and lacking of any aloha, folks.

  12. Especially Incognito:

    Mainland aloha or Hawaii aloha?

    "We've Pulled Ahead," should be "We've Pushed Ahead,"

  13. Chicken Grease:

    How 'bout the classic lyric:

    [Haahhhhhhhhhhhh] Push it!
    Haaaaaahhhh haaaaaaaahhhhhh] Push it!
    Push it good


  14. Goober:

    This comfort with the order of language, unimpeded by
    the constipated grunts that punctuate so much local comedy.
    Needs to clean out it's intestines.

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