Political Radar


August 4th, 2014

Gov. Neil Abercrombie's campaign is using the results of a new Hawaii Poll to help get out the vote in the Democratic primary against state Sen. David Ige.

The pushback to the poll, which showed Abercrombie trailing Ige, started with a message to the governor's supporters on Sunday from William Kaneko, Abercrombie's campaign manager, titled "Victory in Reach:"

Today, a poll was released by Hawaii News Now and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that shows us trailing. We don’t believe it for a second. We’ve been polling too and our results have us tied. That means the entire election boils down to a race to drive voter turnout in the final days of the campaign.

Then came former Gov. John Waihee, in "Deja Vu:"

Neil Abercrombie and I have been friends and colleagues for decades. I’ve always known him to be an advocate for Hawai‘i’s people, and a tenacious campaigner. That’s why I am confident he’ll win this election. He’s a rare leader with passion, integrity, and a vision for providing a brighter future for Hawai‘i.

In 1986, I first ran for governor against then-Congressman Cec Heftel. With two weeks left in the election, I was 18 points behind. Thanks to hard work and getting out the vote, I won.

Abercrombie himself spoke out on Monday in "You are my strength:"

As we near the end of our primary election journey many of you have remarked that I have a very deep reservoir of energy. Well it’s true I do – but not because of any particular virtue on my part – It’s really due to the positive and constant encouragement I’ve been receiving all across Hawaiʻi from you and the thousands of people who are supporting us and rooting for victory on Saturday.

This has been especially so in the last 24 hours as news of the Star-Advertiser poll spread. Already messages were pouring in from everywhere expressing disbelief and determination to get the vote out as a response.

Followed by Kaneko, who forwarded a Washington Post blog post about polling challenges in Hawaii:

We know we’re locked in a tie. That’s why we don’t believe the Hawaii News Now / Star-Advertiser poll. It turns out that the Washington Post doesn’t believe the polls either.

11 Responses to “`GET OUT THE VOTE!'”

  1. ohiaforest3400:

    Of course, it is the First Amendment right of the media, candidates, and anyone else to release poll results at any time. That doesn't mean they should.

    In my view, poll results should not be released once voting has started because it suppresses the vote. That's why the media does not call presidential elections based on exit polling until ALL polling places have closed.

    We have a dismal record of voter participation in Hawaii and release of polls while voting is underway only contributes to that.

  2. kamaaina808:

    It doesn't just suppress the vote - IMHO, it sways the vote. I saw a comment re: Jim Buris telling people re: Kim/Takai race "why waste your vote?" That is an attempt to sway the vote too, because in too many people's minds, they don't want to be seen as 'a loser' because they voted for someone that they know won't make it into office. So they'll end up voting for the two front-runners - even if they don't know anything about them or do & don't like them.

  3. Chicken Grease:

    The president knows:

    And don't forget to cast your COBRAAAAAAAAA vote: http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d_iAq0tReFU

    "Yes we shall!" - Cobra Commander

  4. Chicken Grease:

    Really didn't expect a lot of these races to be so close by this time:

    • Takai/DMK, essentially.

    • Schatz/HanaBuSa

    • And the big one . . . Abercrombie/Ige. Think the Aber's gonna lose big on that one.

    # # #

  5. kamaaina808:

    It's no small wonder that your posts 'disappear' - how old are you?

  6. ohiaforest3400:

    Kamaaina, you may well be right about polls swaying votes. It's just harder to draw that qualitative conclusion without LOTS of exit poll interviews, whereas quantitative voting numbers pretty much speak for themselves.

  7. innocent observer:

    believe Abercrombie is toast - nobody wants a governor who is not your friend; even though he was being forthright - his friends are only the special interests who contributed to his campaign. but, he fails to understand as governor, you must work for all the people not just your friends. we poor people have needs to, but Abercrombie only wants to make his rich friends richer at the expense of the poor people. what a dud. shatz too, nobody wants a puppet for a senator, who does not lead but on follow. that is why the special interests targeted him to support, they can easily sway him, hanabusa thinks clearly, independently and for the working people. what the sense of having a senator with seniority when he only is a yes man, he won't work for Hawaii, and will do only what others tell him to do. Inouye and hanabusa are not like this, they can stand up for what they believe it right for the people of Hawaii. shatz's record as a legislator is very less than stellar, that is why he is trying to buy this election.

  8. Chicken Grease:

    Man. Here we are days before the election . . . a Grease is here reading ohiaforest3400's and kamaaina808's assessments . . . and you guys are right. Agree 100%.

    The press, they act like the polls -- especially the exit polls -- are the final word.

    Ask Dan Rather what a bu++hole he looked like with his "pistol in a frog's pocket" whatever. Journalists and polls ("also" a Grease should add) are like . . . the act of rolling a stone up a hill, only for that stone to roll down and they having to do it over and over again. Daily. You know?

  9. Guy:

    With governor's like Abercrombie, who needs friends? Seriously though, Hawaii is doing pretty well under his leadership. Just can't figure out why anyone would want that to change. He at least deserves the chance to follow through on what's been started. For the Democratic Party to change mid-stream would be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...

  10. layla:

    Perhaps Senator Ige, who seems a good and gentle man, having experienced this first foray into the morass of statewide politics, ostensibly on a wing and a prayer, by the next go-round will have such a
    comprehensive plan of action and will have become so comfortable with public speaking that he will no longer need to preface every comment with, to paraphrase, I know í don't speak so good as my opponent but that translates into plain talk and the unvarnished truth and that's why my plan will work! Or at least manifest itself.

    What was the question? In the mind of this voter it is who will lead this state. I agree with the good Senator, listening is a highly beneficial skill. So are good driving habits. The fortunate thing is that our current Governor displays both. Unfortunately, he also has the temerity to speak his mind. That makes his thoughts transparent. Examining all possibilities of closing the State deficit he inherited from the previous administration translated into the fear he would rob you to save me. He considered taxing the benefits of wealthy retirees. Everyone screamed. He listened. He said he wouldn't do it. Now he can't be trusted. Go figure.

    Our state politics is riddled with that concept of face. Maintaining an implacable face. It comes naturally to some. No matter what happens behind closed doors, we like our politicians humble and grateful on the surface. Tone it down, Governor, stay low key, for goodness sakes just smile and nod. The opposite of transparent. I think even l could learn to listen and smile and nod. But l know enough to know that wouldn't qualify me to lead.

  11. Citizen X:

    Forget the governor vote. This constitutional amendment would require that the state fund private religious schools. Whose religion is best? Mine, of course. But somehow I wonder if it's really the job of government to fund religion.

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