"Toss up"

August 15th, 2014
By

The Cook Political Report, a Washington, D.C.-based independent online newsletter,  has moved the Hawaii governor's race from "lean Democrat" to "toss up," after David Ige's unprecedented primary upset of Gov. Neil Abercrombie in Saturday's primary.

Ige is in a three-way contest against Republican James "Duke" Aiona, the former lieutenant governor, and Indpendent Party of Hawaii nominee Mufi Hannemann, the former Honolulu mayor. Libertarian Jeff Davis also is in the mix.

The Hawaii Poll, taken last month, showed Aiona emerging from a hypothetical three-way race, taking 41 percent, followed by Ige at 34 percent, Hannemann at 16 percent and 10 percent undecided.

Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy notes:

“This year’s race has an added complication in the form of former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, who has entered the race as an independent. Hannemann lost the gubernatorial nomination to Abercrombie in 2010, meaning that his presence on the ballot seems likely to hurt Ige more than Aiona.  The three-way race creates a lot of unknowns.  At the same time, it creates an opening for Republicans.”

 

19 Responses to “"Toss up"”

  1. innocent observer:

    I supported Ige in the primary, but if he does not terminate the LG's 2nd office on Maui, costing over a $1 million a year to maintain, I will vote for Aiona. there is no good reason to foolishly spend that kind of money for someone who does virtually nothing on Maui.


  2. zzzzzz:

    A lot of people voted for Abercrombie in the 2010 primary because he wasn't Mufi. A lot of people voted for Ige in the 2014 primary because he wasn't Abercrombie, although he did appear to grow on people over time. Transitivity suggests a lot of people will vote for Ige because he isn't Mufi, which means that Mufi's presence on the ballot won't hurt Ige much.

    I think Mufi is more likely to take votes from Aiona than Ige, especially as they both appeal to religious conservatives, e.g., marriage equality opponents.

    I also think that as people get to know more about Ige, many of them will vote for him, as opposed to voting against Mufi or Aiona. Ige having been accepted into MIT puts him up there with anyone accepted into Harvard; MIT students can take classes at Harvard, and vice versa.


  3. zzzzzz:

    IO, why not have the LG's office on O'ahu terminated instead? Many see the LG as a do-nothing office anyway; couldn't Tsutsui do nothing as well on Maui as on O'ahu? Wouldn't that also cut down on the LG travel costs?

    Or better yet, the LG could have an office/travel budget, and allocate it as he sees fit. Perhaps a small office on Maui and a cubicle on O'ahu, a single cell phone instead of two land lines, one laptop for wherever he is, and Skype for meeting with folks on O'ahu.


  4. Guido Sarducci:

    All Four Gubernatorial Candidates to Appear at Grassroot Institute Forum
    http://www.hawaiifreepress.com/ArticlesMain/tabid/56/ID/13308/All-Four-Gubernatorial-Candidates-to-Appear-at-Grassroot-Institute-Forum.aspx


  5. Kolea:

    Cook is half-baked!

    The Guv's race "leans Democrat," and I will respect the opinion of anyone who disputes that if they are willing wager even money on it.

    If Schatz wins the US Senate seat, liberals will have a sense they are a welcome part of the Democratic Party "Ohana." Which will help reunite the Party behind Ige and Takai.

    Governor Abercromvie graciously led his followers to Ige's HQ on election night and help speed up the healing. If Hanabusa can act half as gracious after tonight's results are reported, another piece joins the unity push. Those who expect her to throw a tantrum are going to be disappointed. Probably.

    I wonder if Malia Zimmerman still has close ties with her "Chinatown bookie"?


  6. Chicken Grease:

    Yes, [a Grease pumps fist].

    It is SCHATZ.

    X-Generation.

    Coming.

    Be ready more than you'd have to be ready for an Anonymous hack.


  7. Johnson:

    Innocent Observer, you say this: "I supported Ige in the primary, but if he does not terminate the LG's 2nd office on Maui, costing over a $1 million a year to maintain, I will vote for Aiona."

    If I may ask, just how is it that you think Ige can "terminate the LG's 2nd office on Maui"? If he already has that much power, why run for Governor? You think he can just wiggle his nose from his Senate office and eliminate an office over in the Executive branch?

    And...and...you're saying that if he doesn't do that, you're going to vote for Aiona? Really?


  8. Repleh:

    Ige starts with the Dem base -- liberals for whom marriage equality is a litmus test, the AJAs, the unions. There is some overlap among these groups, obviously, but that's forty percent or more right there. That should be enough, and that's his floor, not his ceiling. I don't see how he loses unless his opponents can somehow take advantage of the fact that he's not really known, and paint him as indecisive or weak or something. The idea that Mufi takes any substantial bite out of Ige's vote makes little sense to me. I bet he wins wih more than the other two combined.


  9. Kolea:

    I am not feeling much love in the community for either Mufi or Aiona.

    Once Hanabusa accepts her defeat and begins to express unity, the Dems will be able to come together behind Ige. It can happen without her playing a prominent part. She can play the "Ed Case" role if she is determined to do so. Or she can jump in and help heal the party behind Ige and Takai.

    The liberal wing of the party lost Abercrombie, but are moving to support Ige, aided by Neil's gracious behavior. And the Old Boy Network lost the US Senate race. And Mark Takai can easily be supported as a compromise candidate by both wings. That sounds like "ownership" of the party is pretty evenly distributed among all the claimants.

    Come on in Colleen. The water is fine. Maybe on Monday?


  10. Kate Stanley:

    Schatz,Takai,Ige/Tsutsui will win in November. The Democratic Party will come together and support these candidates who will serve all the people of Hawaii well.


  11. Michelle Del Rosario:

    Let the debates begin!! I want to the candidates to speak on the issues important to Hawaii and so should you. Elections are about track records, experience and integrity. HANNEMANN/CHANG gets my vote on November 4th. Please join me in supporting an Independent Governor who is beholden to no one -- but the voters.


  12. Kolea:

    Those predicting Mufi will be trounced in November are overlooking the clamoring in the public for his leadership. Take Michelle del Rosario's letter as an example of the passion he evokes outside the chattering classes.

    Oh wait, she is his campaign chair.

    If the election is about 3 things, track records, experience and integrity, Mufi is in deep trouble.

    Unless "track record" is code word for "The Train," I don't think that appeal will work.

    As for "experience," sorry sister, we already wen experience Mufi for many years. (Maybe that's why the Mufi campaign seems to be headquartered on Maui. They have nowhere near the "experience" of Mufi that Oahu people have had).

    "Integrity" and "Mufi" in the same sentence? The lady doth protest too much methinks. His entire administration was a complete "pay to play" regime. He had three sources of support: the large developers, who contributed in exchange for being allowed to build their projects, the building trade unions, who are trapped by the need to provide jobs for their members, even if the environment is destroyed, and appointed city employees, whose jobs depended upon his continued good favor, so they worked hard to protect their jobs. Once he lost the the ability to award contracts and bestow jobs, he lost most of his base. Only those feeling shut out by other politicians are now supporting him in the hope his election will bring back their benefits.

    But he does have Michelle's vote. So he's part-way to victory.


  13. Son of Anarchy:

    Duke Aiona all the way!!! He's the most fiscally responsible candidate on this list and with the economic problems we face we need a guy who can grow the economy.


  14. Democrat for Duke?:

    Seriously, can someone name 5 things Duke Aiona did as Lt. Governor? How about 3 things? His commercials about being a Judge does not mention anything he did as Lt. Governor.


  15. Chicken Grease:

    Democrat for Duke?:
    August 18th, 2014 at 10:27 am

    Seriously, can someone name 5 things Duke Aiona did as Lt. Governor? How about 3 things? His commercials about being a Judge does not mention anything he did as Lt. Governor.

    His commercial clearly addresses that he (Aiona) makes tough decisions. Don't miss the POINT of the commercial -- he's not out to Sesame Street, "oh, duh, here's is t'ree or fi' t'ings I did as Lute Gahv."

    This commercial -- while sliiiiiiightly put out too early, and even then! -- is effective into getting (and a Grease warned about this) the seemingly mealy mouthed/mumbling-ness (and a Grease ain't implying for which pair he voting; on THIS a Grease is undecided; like you care) of a Bat- Ige/Tsutuiboywonder ticket -- and don't look now, but, Aiona does it single-handedly in the ad.

    This is one election the Dems cannot take for granted. It's all "one false slip" time for them -- DJou came out unusually strong with his HQ this past weekend. And I hate to say it about Takai (this is THE best candidate for this year's election for any race), but, he really needs to beef up his motor-speed skills in debate. Rat-a-tat-tat-tat-tat, Takai, no talk slow, roll over that DJou!! Djou, he ready because he really believes his 2 hours as a U.S. rep' really makes a difference! But, then again, Takai . . . he the master planner. Like, ya'll remember Black belt Theatre on KITV? Takai the master planner like the Master Killer (i.e. 36th Chamber of Shaolin). Ah. A Grease goes off. But, except for Abercrombie (a Grease wears my prediction with a source of pride. I mean, when bruddah lose by as much votes most of ya'll lose in Vegas -- admit it -- that's just hilarious), a Grease was right about:

    • Takai
    • Schatz

    So, you better listen to a Grease. The campaigning for the General in Hawaii will make the red willing in A Song of Ice and Fire look like a John Lennon sit in w/e'rybody wearing white clothes.


  16. Chicken Grease:

    "Red Wedding." Not "Red Willing." Sorry.


  17. Pay to play is the game:

    Kate Stanley...ever blame yourself why Neil Abercrombie lost? I mean like you claim to be all knowing but at the end of the day, you anhilated all of Neil's "future" and now you trying to piggy back on Ige? Spoken like a true...gold digger!


  18. Marcos X:

    Gold in Hawaii?


  19. Marcos X:

    Long live Marcos.


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