`En masse'

September 3rd, 2014
By

Gov. Neil Abercrombie said Friday that a contributing factor in his Democratic primary loss to state Sen. David Ige was that Republican voters participated in the Democratic primary "en masse."

But the share of voters who cast ballots for Republicans -- 15.2 percent -- was about the same as in recent elections, as was overall voter turnout.

As the Hawaii Poll and other polls have predicted, most voters in recent elections have chosen to participate in Democratic primaries.

A rough calculation of the Republican voter base in Hawaii is about 30 percent, yet only about half of that share has been voting in Republican primaries in recent elections.

The low point was 11.7 percent in the 2006 primary, a year when the marquee race was U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka and U.S. Rep. Ed Case in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Case, a moderate, had appealed to Republicans -- and all voters -- to participate in the primary.

The high point was 54.6 percent in the 1998 primary, when Linda Lingle -- the future governor -- defeated former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi for the Republican nomination for governor.

Here is a snapshot of the recent Republican share of primary turnout:

2014: 15.2% (44,142 voters)
2012: 16.8% (49,044)
2010: 15.6% (45,733)
2008: 17.2% (42,499)
2006: 11.7% (32,698)
2004: 23.8% (60,222)
2002: 29% (79,871)
2000: 24.3% (61,178)
1998: 54.6% (159,126)

12 Responses to “`En masse'”

  1. innocent observer:

    anything to blame something or someone else for his resounding defeat. man-up, you lost because you junk and nothing else.


  2. Chicken Grease:

    Man, when is he gonna s#@ddap about d'is already? First he tell the Evangelicals one thing. Now he saying this. He's like the walking down the street talking to himself, "oh, I win 'cuz o' dis! No, no, no, I win 'cuz o' dat! No, no, no, no, no, no, no, ah, time catch bus!!!!!" Take a tip from Devo, Aber' -- "go forward. Move ahead."

    Next week, what? He goin' 'cite NFL conspiracy against him? Start cleaning out your desk, Aber', better waste of your time.


  3. Kahulinui:

    Not true. I checked with the republicans. All three of them. Two said they voted in the republican primary for Duke. The third said he went fishing and didn't vote.


  4. sue:

    Mahalo for the interesting research, Derrick DePledge. Almost 160k republican votes in 1998 primary -- ya think democrats crossed over? or were there really that many republicans?


  5. curtis crabbe:

    shibai, exit interview, pau, new leaf, people are tired and broke, want vision, not hollow vain promises, too bad, he has good staff, but shibai, people can smell it, and gay/lesbian effort killed all, abercomibie, hee, and many more heads will follow, in two years, we remember, in 1998 70% adam and eve, that is the "EN MASSE" that booted him out, pau, nough analysis vote Dukie


  6. Bart Dame:

    It is my sense the Governor has been backing away from these remarks. So I am hesitant to prolong his discomfort. The reality is, most Republican-inclined voters feel they have every right to vote in the Democratic primary and often do so. If the Governor was the target of their ire this election, it would confirm the integrity of his analysis if he were to simultaneously state he must have been the beneficiary of their support in 2010 when he defeated Mufi by a slightly smaller margin.

    Derrick shows that GOP primary turnout was similar in 2010 and 2014. Here's the other piece of the puzzle. The number of people voting in the Democratic primary this year was virtually the same as in 2010.

    There were 240,120 votes cast in the Democratic primary in 2010.
    There were 237,915 votes cast in the Democratic primary this year.

    That does not prove there was not substantial Republican crossover this year. But if there was, there was a similar crossover in 2010, when Abercrombie defeated Hannemann.

    Neil wants to believe it was dastardly Republicans who rejected him. The numbers suggest a large number of authentic Democratic voters also voted for Ige instead of him. His support for marriage equality was noble. But very few voters switch from supporting him to opposing him based upon that issue. He had almost zero support from the anti-gay crowd to begin with. He lost support among core Democratic constituencies like the elderly, environmentalists, good government reformers and key unions because of some ill-considered policies he promoted, in addition to his stubborn, "my way or the highway" approach towards those who disagreed with him.

    I have no desire to kick him while he is down. There is much to admire about Neil, when he is the best Neil he can be. But this malarkey he is spinning about being a martyr for civil rights is baloney. No one believes it, except the Christian fundamentalists whose image is enhanced by the bogus idea they can destroy liberals through their power. That is nonsense. While they can sometimes win a tight race in a small House district, that is rare. They have shown themselves to be a paper tiger. And Neil's self-justifying "explanation" not only makes him feel better, it feeds the myth of the Christian right's strength. So the Governor should pull himself together and figure how to improve his legacy through deeds, not by spinning tales.


  7. Especially Incognito:

    Abercrombie pleading En Masse,
    the stroke made with the cue held vertically.
    Meaning he didn't see the curve ball.

    No Mass!


  8. Chicken Grease:

    blockquote>Bart Dame:
    September 4th, 2014 at 8:59 am

    . . . But this malarkey he is spinning about being a martyr for civil rights is baloney. No one believes it, except the Christian fundamentalists whose image is enhanced by the bogus idea they can destroy liberals through their power. That is nonsense. While they can sometimes win a tight race in a small House district, that is rare. They have shown themselves to be a paper tiger. And Neil's self-justifying "explanation" not only makes him feel better, it feeds the myth of the Christian right's strength. So the Governor should pull himself together and figure how to improve his legacy through deeds, not by spinning tales.

    Sigh. Here we go again.

    Ignore the evangelicals at your own "end up scratching your head for no reason."

    Dame . . . I bet your commentary (online or otherwise) about Muslim issues are NIL. Right? You must be far on the Left, too.


  9. jackson:

    None of the GOP candidates I might. vote for were at risk of losing the primary. Contrary to the local GOP's advice, I would rather vote against democrats I want out and for those I think are best for the office. the general is different.


  10. Kimo Sutton:

    Facts, numbers, and two storms.
    If you think the turnout and voting numbers are similar how about those who did not turn out? Only 33% on Maui for example. Is that similar to 2012 primary or is it the number is the same? Come on Derrick its the percentage of the electorate. Not the similar numbers. Okay the GOP did not crossover. They had no effect there.
    Neil is way off his rocker but you may need to get a second opinion as to it being the same as 2012. I see so many people not voting in one of the highest profile elections with big money and so many candidates. I saw so many millions spent on tv alone. Newspaper adds too.Hawaii News Now and the Star-Advertiser had a poll released the week before an election. That is news making. Neil was down then by 18 points. Okay Duke is ahead of all candidates but by percentages and still is until you release a poll or CB does. Duke is advertising now have you noticed??? He must be ahead by 15%.
    With so many votes coming from absentee and early walk ins did it not cross your mind to say that the election and the people of Hawaii would have been better off delaying the election by a week? Imagine a 15% bump in turnout at near general elections of past percentages (numbers in your case). Yes 56% a week later as the state was so in a malaise from Iselle. Stores were still closed Saturday and most people did not think it wise to un prepare for the second storm on Friday. The governor was on tv in a state of emergency and it hurt him to show such age and infirm speech. Emergency called and having an election. Pure stupidity and desperation. You gotta ask why or why not.
    Then there were those polls your paper/tv put out that had Hanabusa winning by 8%. She must be livid about the way Noga and Neil kept the schedule to only help Schatz. I see her comeback as her signs are already printed for 2016. 8 points! Her voters stayed away. Look again at her supporters in your poll as they were older and possibly still hunkered down. Storm shock.
    Absentees in 2010 were 130,000 -19% (last Gubernatorial race primary).142,000(20%) in 2012, but 2014 164,000 (24%)! A JUMP OF 4% in absentee but a decrease of precinct percent by 3.5% in 2014 and not changed in percentages in the former two elections by a major amount. It is not like the elections office did much information or education to get that number up.
    It is not about the big loss but the big picture.


  11. Especially Incognito:

    ISIS is the old Republican Guards of Saddam Hussein.
    Sunnis fighting Kurds and Shiites. Christian are fair game.


  12. Especially Incognito:

    Not everyone has a big screen TV. Thinking their smart phone
    is the biggest screen there is or next to the Ipad. Some people
    need subtitles to understand American, language or anything
    American except the want or greed for Money. Many don't care
    about politics, just an excuse to blow off steam.


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